Press Freedom Index: Is the Entire Credit Really Due to the Interim Government? Which Way Lies the Future?: Dr. Abhimanyu Foyezi

Progga News, New York, USA:

Every action of this government appears to be marred by falsehood and double standards. Whenever any good news arrives for the people of the country, the operatives of this regime rush to claim full credit. This tendency is known as “ruler hypocrisy.” All those in power employ it to varying degrees, but under the current administration, this practice has grown alarmingly excessive and taken on a new form. One manifestation of this hypocrisy is the tendency to claim ownership of any good outcome, while blaming the opposition for anything bad. Several incidents in the past have followed this pattern. Today, we’ll focus on a new instance.

To display such political hypocrisy, you also need a hypocritical person. One such figure in the current administration is Mahfuz Alam, who is also thought to be the mastermind of the recent political movement. This political hypocrite has informed us that a few days ago, Bangladesh advanced 16 spots in the global Press Freedom Index published by the international organization Reporters Without Borders. Wonderful—we are pleased. But the issue lies elsewhere. Let me explain.

Citing the reason behind this 16-spot improvement, Mr. Alam told us (as published in Bangla Tribune, https://www.banglatribune.com/national/896773/বিশ্ব-মুক্ত-গণমাধ্যম-সূচকে-১৬-ধাপ-এগিয়েছে):

"...Since there is no government interference in the media, Bangladesh has advanced 16 steps in the World Press Freedom Index in just one year… Mentioning the interim government’s initiatives to establish press freedom, the advisor [Mahfuz Alam] said that Bangladesh Betar, Bangladesh Television, and all media houses in the country are now free from government influence. No government representative is calling media houses to interfere. The government has already taken several steps to ensure a free and strong media. The 16-step improvement in Bangladesh’s ranking in the World Press Freedom Index proves that the government is indeed working toward a free and empowered media." (Translated from Bangla).

Impressive, isn’t it? But the flaw in this narrative soon draws attention.

If you are familiar with research methodology, your first question might be: has the year 2025 concluded? Only April has just passed! After that, it takes time to collect and analyze data. Furthermore, Reporters Without Borders uses not only quantitative but also qualitative data in its analysis. This process takes considerable time. So for anyone whopractices methodological thinking, it raises the question: if data was collected through April, how is it possible that this index score for 2025—based on just four months—is already being proudly presented by our information advisor?

Trying to answer this question reveals (as described in the organization’s own methodology on its website) that the index is compiled using data from the previous year. That is, for the 2025 index for Bangladesh, the organization used data from 2024. Hence, if any credit is to be given for the improved score in 2025, it must be shared between the Awami League government and the Interim Government. But listening to Mahfuz Alam, it sounds as if all the credit belongs solely to them. It is important to note here that the Awami League was in power for most of 2024 (until August 4). So if they governed most of the year, how can the entire credit be taken by the current government? How does that make sense?

One possible argument in favor of Mahfuz might be that the Awami League’s performance in the first seven months of 2024 was very poor, but the Interim Government performed so exceptionally well afterward that, accounting for both, the final score reached the current level—thus justifying sole credit for the interim administration. That is essentially what Mahfuz is claiming. But again, if you are someone trained in research methods, your instinct will tell you: something’s fishy here.

And indeed, there are multiple ways to test if something is fishy. You have access to the Awami League’s performance data for 2022 and 2023. Add to that the documented cases of journalist oppression and suppression of press freedom in 2024—these are known both to Reporters Without Borders and to the public. Similarly, what happened in the media after August is also on record. Some major media houses fell victim to mob justice. Additionally, many journalists lost their jobs in the aftermath of the movement. These developments were surely noted by the organization.

With this context in mind, I attempted to create an analysis: what would the 2024 picture look like if we separated the Awami League and the Interim Government? This led me to consider the use of a forecast model. Although Reporters Without Borders reports press freedom scores annually, I used AI tools to apply a forecasting model to estimate how much each government contributed to the 2025 index. Additionally, I tried to forecast how scores might evolve from 2024 through 2030 if each regime continued in power independently. With the help of ChatGPT, I present both analyses here.

ChatGPT first created a chronological account of various events and, based on that, produced month-wise estimates for 2024. It then provided a detailed formula to generate monthly scores for press freedom. Below is a table summarizing the monthly scores and key events considered in the calculation (see Table 1). To illustrate the rise and fall of scores more vividly, we have also created a line graph (see Chart 1).

Table 1 and Chart 1 tell us that the average estimated score for January to July 2024 was 34.24, which dropped to 33.25 for August to December. As a result, the overall average declined to 33.71. In other words, had the score not dropped in the last four months, it would have remained at 34.24—about one point higher. This fact is presented here to challenge the current government's tendency to claim all the credit for positive developments.

Table 1: Month Wise Forecasted Scores & Significant Episodes

Month	Score	Notes
Jan 2024	35.0	Status quo from 2023, minimal change
Feb 2024	34.8	Minor editorial interference
Mar 2024	34.6	Arrest threats and indirect pressure begin
Apr 2024	34.4	Increasing surveillance and columnist removals
May 2024	34.0	Governmental warnings issued to critical press
Jun 2024	33.5	Media licensing threats
Jul 2024	33.0	Fear-driven self-censorship begins
Aug 2024	32.0	Post-Aug 5 journalist firings start
Sep 2024	31.0	Mob violence, major press silence
Oct 2024	30.5	Dissenting voices almost absent
Nov 2024	30.1	Opinion columns halted
Dec 2024	29.6	Near-total suppression

Now let’s turn to the second issue. Chart 2 beautifully models estimated performance lines for both the Awami League and the current Interim Government based on recent trends. It assumes both regimes started from the same score (33.71) in January 2024. The model then projects that if the Interim Government remains in power until January 2030, the score would fall to 26. In contrast, if the Awami League maintains its latest performance, the score would rise from 33.71 to 37 by January 2030.

That’s all for today’s discussion. Our job is to present data to the readers. It is then up to the readers to form their own opinions based on this information.